中信证券于翔：现在的大跌是个合适的布局时间点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which includes a 34% tariff on Chinese imports effective April 9, has led to significant market volatility and a strong response from China, which will impose the same tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10 [1][2] - The A-share market experienced a substantial decline, primarily due to China's unexpected countermeasures and a downturn in overseas markets, which heightened global panic and reduced the likelihood of other countries reaching agreements with the U.S. [1] - The article suggests that the current market downturn may be overly pessimistic, and it recommends focusing on cyclical sectors that are undervalued, such as infrastructure, real estate, and consumer recovery [1][2] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that if China engages in counter-cyclical measures, such as increasing leverage in real estate and city investment, it could lead to an improvement in fundamentals and a potential return of foreign capital [2] - The pressure on the U.S. economy and stock market ahead of the midterm elections in November 2024 may prompt the Trump administration to consider easing policies, which could coincide with China's easing cycle, thus providing a more optimistic outlook for the stock market [2]