54%关税风暴来袭，银行股或成避风港？关注这13只股

Core Viewpoint - The cumulative tariff rate of 54% imposed by the US on China is impacting China's economic structure and total output, leading to a contraction in credit demand and pressure on interest margins in the banking sector, although overall asset quality remains stable [1][3]. Economic Impact - Weak external demand is increasing operational pressure on export-related enterprises, resulting in decreased credit demand from these clients, lower loan rates, and challenges to asset quality, with varying impacts across different client segments [1][3]. - The share of exports to the US is expected to drop to 14.7% in 2024, compounded by high tariffs, which may lead to a potential reduction of 213.9 billion yuan in credit growth related to exports by 2025 [3]. Policy Response - Macro-control measures are anticipated to become more accommodative, with policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand likely to boost retail credit demand [1][3]. - The introduction of consumption loans is expected to be a key strategy, with an estimated increase of 1.24 trillion yuan in 2024, representing 6.9% of total credit growth [3]. Investment Outlook - The banking sector's high dividend yield and policy support are expected to enhance investment attractiveness, particularly for large banks, China Merchants Bank, and quality city commercial banks [1][2]. - The report suggests focusing on large banks and city commercial banks with strong regional advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank [2]. Credit Quality - The risk exposure related to export sectors is manageable, with the manufacturing and personal business loans directly affected by tariffs, accounting for a maximum exposure of 2.6% [7]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the manufacturing sector is projected to remain low at 1.36%, indicating a robust risk management environment [7]. Interest Margin - A decline in credit demand is expected to exert downward pressure on loan rates, with a potential 14 basis points drop in industry interest margins for every 1% decrease in credit growth [4][5]. - The anticipated reduction in deposit rates and the release of low-cost funds through reserve requirement ratio cuts are expected to partially offset the pressure on asset yields [4][5]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with a high provision coverage ratio providing a buffer against potential increases in non-performing loans [8]. - The trend of rising non-performing loans in retail lending is likely to reverse due to improved consumer repayment capabilities and supportive policies [8].