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Shell first quarter 2025 update note
SHELShell Global(SHEL) Newsfilter·2025-04-07 06:00

Core Insights - The company provides an updated outlook for Q1 2025, with expectations subject to finalization of results to be published on May 2, 2025 [1] Integrated Gas - Adjusted EBITDA for Integrated Gas shows production expected to be between 910 - 950 kboe/d, slightly up from 905 kboe/d in Q4 2024, impacted by unplanned maintenance [2] - LNG liquefaction volumes are projected to decrease to 6.4 - 6.8 MT from 7.1 MT due to weather impacts and maintenance [2] - Underlying operating expenses (opex) are expected to be between 0.9 - 1.1 billion [2] Upstream - Adjusted EBITDA for Upstream indicates production expected to range from 1,790 - 1,890 kboe/d, down from 1,859 kboe/d in Q4 2024 [4] - Underlying opex is forecasted to be between 2.1 - 2.7 billion [4] - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between 1.9 - 2.5 billion, while the taxation charge is projected to be between 2.4 - 3.2 billion [4][5] Marketing - Adjusted EBITDA for Marketing shows sales volumes expected to be between 2,500 - 2,900 kb/d, down from 2,795 kb/d [6] - Underlying opex is anticipated to be between 2.3 - 2.7 billion [6] - Pre-tax depreciation is projected to be between 0.5 - 0.7 billion, with a taxation charge expected to be between 0.2 - 0.5 billion [6] Chemicals and Products - The indicative refining margin is expected to increase from 5.5/bblinQ42024to5.5/bbl in Q4 2024 to 6.2/bbl in Q1 2025 [10] - Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to be in line with Q4 2024 at 126/tonne[10]Refineryutilizationisprojectedtobebetween83126/tonne [10] - Refinery utilization is projected to be between 83% - 87%, up from 76% [10] Renewables and Energy Solutions - Adjusted earnings for Renewables and Energy Solutions are expected to remain at (0.3) billion [11] Corporate - Adjusted earnings for Corporate are projected to be between (0.6) - (0.4) billion, down from (0.4) billion in Q4 2024 [12] Shell Group - Cash flow from operating activities (CFFO) indicates tax paid expected to be between 2.5 - 3.3 billion, down from 2.9 billion [13] - Working capital is expected to range from (5) to 0 billion, including approximately 0.5 billion of deferred German Mineral Oil Taxes settlements [13] - The Q1 2025 net debt movement will reflect a ~1.5 billion increase related to loan facilities from the SPDC sale [14] Other Considerations - The share of profit/loss from joint ventures and associates in Q1 2025 is expected to be around 0.2billion,withexplorationwellwriteoffsanticipatedat0.2 billion, with exploration well write-offs anticipated at 0.1 billion [5] - Trading & Optimization results are expected to align with Q4 2024 despite a higher non-cash impact from expiring hedge contracts [3]