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海螺水泥(600585):2025年期待供给释放边际弹性

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in annual revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed improvement in Q4 2024, driven by price increases and cost reductions [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.498 billion yuan, an increase of 42.27% year-on-year [1][2]. Operational Metrics - The national cement production in 2024 was 1.825 billion tons, a decline of 9.5% year-on-year - The company's self-produced cement clinker sales were 26.8 million tons, down 6% year-on-year, which was better than the industry average - The average revenue per ton of self-produced products was 246 yuan, a decrease of 28 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the average cost per ton was 187 yuan, down 18 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][3]. Cost and Expenditure - The total expenses for the year were 9.448 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year - The company incurred an impairment provision of approximately 300 million yuan in Q4 2024 - Capital expenditures for 2024 were 15.619 billion yuan, with significant increases in production capacity across various segments [2][3]. Capacity Expansion - The company added 2.3 million tons of clinker capacity overseas and increased cement capacity by 8 million tons through relocation - Additional capacities included 14.5 million tons of aggregates and 12.1 million cubic meters of commercial concrete - By the end of 2024, the company had a clinker capacity of 27.4 million tons and a cement capacity of 40.3 million tons [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout of at least 50% of net profit for the years 2025-2027, with an estimated dividend yield of 3.4% based on a profit assumption of 9 billion yuan - For 2025, capital expenditures are projected to be 11.98 billion yuan, with expectations for improved cash flow and a slowdown in spending [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - Expected earnings for 2025 and 2026 are 9.2 billion yuan and 10.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14 and 13 [4].