Annaly Shares Rise 11.5% in a Year: Is It Worth Buying Now?

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has shown resilience in a challenging economic environment, outperforming its peers and the industry overall [1][4]. Performance Summary - NLY's stock has increased by 11.5% over the past year, while the industry has declined by 3.8% [1]. - Compared to peers, AGNC Investment has grown by 7.2%, and Ellington Credit Company has decreased by 19% [1]. Liquidity and Capital Distribution - Annaly maintains a strong liquidity position with an unencumbered asset portfolio of $5.8 billion, enhancing its ability to navigate market fluctuations [5][6]. - The company announced a cash dividend of 70 cents per share for Q1 2025, a 7.7% increase from the previous payout, with a current dividend yield of 14.87%, surpassing the industry average of 11.30% [6][7]. - NLY's payout ratio stands at 96% of its earnings, indicating a sustainable dividend policy [7]. Market Conditions and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a decline in mortgage rates, which is expected to improve purchase originations and refinancing volumes [11][12]. - NLY is anticipated to benefit from these trends, leading to an improvement in book value and net interest spread [13]. Diversification Strategy - Annaly's diversified capital allocation includes residential credit, mortgage servicing rights (MSR), and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which helps mitigate risks and enhance returns [14][15]. - The company has exited its Middle Market Lending portfolio and commercial real estate business to focus on its core housing finance strategy [16]. - The inclusion of MSRs in the portfolio is expected to provide consistent returns, especially in fluctuating interest rate environments [17]. Investment Outlook - NLY's strong liquidity and diversified investment strategy position it well for long-term growth and stability [18]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, reflecting a solid growth trajectory [20]. - The company is trading at a forward P/E of 6.67X, lower than the industry average of 7.67X, indicating potential value for investors [22].