Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff policy has led to significant declines in metal prices, particularly in copper, nickel, and tin, with expectations of short-term demand suppression but long-term supply constraints due to increasing demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [1][2][4]. Price Volatility - International copper prices have shown a strong upward trend into 2025, reaching 83,320 yuan/ton by the end of March, but fell to a low of 73,640 yuan/ton by April 7, effectively reversing earlier gains [2] - The U.S. government announced a 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners and additional tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% on over 60 countries, leading to significant price drops in various metals during the Qingming holiday [2][3] - LME copper prices dropped by 8.95%, COMEX copper by 10.21%, and LME tin and nickel also saw declines of nearly 10% [2] Supply Constraints - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to lead to a decrease in both U.S. and global trade, potentially weakening demand for non-ferrous metals [4] - Despite tariff impacts, the copper market is projected to remain tight due to uncertainties in supply, including regional policy disruptions and operational challenges in mining [5][6] - The aluminum sector faces limitations due to a production cap in China and rising carbon emission costs, although supply constraints have eased somewhat [6] Industry Response - Companies are advised to adapt to the high inflation environment in the U.S. and the potential for tariff adjustments, with a focus on diversifying markets and reducing reliance on the U.S. [7] - The domestic consumption of non-ferrous metals in China accounts for over 40% of global demand, suggesting resilience against tariff impacts [7] - Downstream processing and end-user sectors are experiencing seasonal improvements in orders, but demand remains insufficiently strong [8]
短期冲击不改有色商品 长期需求增长趋势
Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-04-07 18:19