Buffett's Next Oil Bet: Why Occidental Is Different

Core Insights - Warren Buffett has shifted his perspective on the oil and energy sector, particularly with his significant investment in Occidental Petroleum Co. (OXY) [2][13] - Buffett's previous investment in ConocoPhillips was deemed a "major mistake," leading to substantial losses [5][4] Investment in Occidental Petroleum - Berkshire Hathaway acquired OXY stock when it was down 30% from its highs in February 2025, increasing its stake by 763,017 shares to a total of 265 million shares, representing 28.2% of the company [2] - This investment accounted for 4.63% of Berkshire's total assets, making it the sixth-largest holding in the portfolio [2] - Buffett's investment strategy with Occidental included a $10 billion investment in preferred stock, which provided an 8% annual dividend and warrants for purchasing common stock at $59.62 per share [9][13] Comparison with Previous Investments - Buffett's earlier investment in ConocoPhillips involved accumulating nearly 85 million shares, but he exited by 2013 with estimated losses of $1.5 billion due to a failure to anticipate the collapse in energy prices [5][4] - In contrast, Buffett's investment in Occidental is characterized by a solid foundation of dividends and the potential for further stock acquisition at a discount [13] Leadership and Strategy - Buffett praised Occidental's CEO Vicki Hollub for her fiscal discipline and long-term vision, which influenced Berkshire's decision to invest [10] - Occidental is diversifying its operations, particularly through investments in carbon capture technology via its subsidiary 1PointFive, which is set to launch a billion-dollar direct air capture facility in 2025 [11][12] Market Outlook - Analysts have a 12-month stock price forecast for Occidental Petroleum at $59.00, indicating a potential upside of 52.44% from the current price of $38.70 [11] - The company is also selling carbon dioxide removal credits, which could enhance its revenue streams and align with environmental accountability [12]