PayPal Stock: Too Cheap to Ignore, Too Strong to Miss

Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stock has entered bear market territory, showing a significant decline, but its fundamentals indicate it may be undervalued and present a buying opportunity [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, PayPal generated $6.8 billion in free cash flow, a substantial increase from $4.2 billion in 2023 [2]. - Q4 earnings per share (EPS) were $1.19, exceeding estimates by $0.07, with revenue rising 4.2% year-over-year to $8.37 billion [2]. - Total payment volume (TPV) grew 7% year-over-year to $437.8 billion in Q4, reaching $1.68 trillion for the full year, a 10% increase [2]. User Growth and Market Position - Despite a 3% dip in payment transaction volume (PTV) in Q4, full-year PTV increased by 5% to 26.3 billion [3]. - PayPal added 8.8 million active accounts, bringing the total to 434 million, with users making 3% more transactions on average [3]. - The company ended Q4 with $15.1 billion in cash and $11.1 billion in total debt, providing significant financial flexibility [3]. Forward Guidance - PayPal raised its forward guidance for Q1 2025, projecting EPS between $1.15 and $1.17, with a midpoint of $1.16, compared to consensus estimates of $1.13 [4]. - For the full year 2025, EPS guidance is set between $4.95 and $5.10, with a midpoint of $5.03, above the consensus estimate of $4.90 [4]. Valuation Metrics - PayPal's stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.58 and a forward P/E of 11.6, both significantly below the financial transaction services industry average of 23.28 [6]. - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 13.88, and the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1.82, indicating the market may be undervaluing its growth potential [6]. Treasury Stock Holdings - PayPal's treasury stock holdings have grown to $18.5 billion, providing flexibility for future acquisitions and employee compensation plans without diluting current shareholders [7][9]. - The value of treasury stock has decreased from $27.09 billion at the end of 2024 to $18.49 billion as of April 3, 2025, due to stock price decline [8]. Resilience to Economic Factors - PayPal is not directly impacted by U.S. tariffs as it earns revenue from transaction processing services and does not import goods [11]. - Cross-border payment volume accounted for 13% of TPV in Q4, totaling $56.9 billion, indicating growth in international transactions [11].