国泰海通：无风险利率下行是2025中国股市上升的关键动力

Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in investor expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates, particularly the decline in risk-free interest rates, which is expected to drive valuation upgrades in the Chinese A/H stock market by 2025 [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Valuation Dynamics - The valuation logic of the Chinese stock market is transitioning, with the overall valuation center of A/H shares expected to rise due to declining discount rates [2] - After three years of market clearing and adjustment, the marginal impact of economic conditions on valuation contraction has diminished, leading to a focus on discount rate changes [2][4] - Historical trends indicate that each major rally in the Chinese stock market has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, facilitating capital inflow and the development of investment tools [4] Group 2: Historical Comparisons - Japan's experience in the late 1990s shows that when long-term government bond yields fell below 2%, interest in fixed-income products decreased while interest in stocks and equity products increased [3] - Similarly, in the U.S. around 2011, a drop in long-term government bond yields led to a reduction in bond scale and a significant increase in stock and equity investments [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming decline in risk-free interest rates is seen as a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025, with expectations of broad-based valuation increases for both blue-chip and growth stocks [5] - The current market conditions are conducive to a new influx of capital, including from households, fixed income+, insurance, foreign investments, and offshore capital, with ETFs expected to play a significant role in this process [4]