罗牛山、湘佳股份、巨星农牧多股涨停，畜牧养殖大涨逻辑是什么？

External Logic - The recent increase in tariffs by the US has led to a significant rise in agricultural prices, with the agricultural sector acting as a countermeasure to the tariffs [1][3] - The Wind反关税指数 surged by 11% on April 8, 2025, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors making up the majority of this index [1] Internal Logic - The supply-demand dynamics in the livestock sector are expected to improve, particularly due to the ongoing "pig cycle," which indicates a cyclical change in pig prices [5] - As of February 2025, the number of breeding sows in China has decreased by nearly 7% since early 2023, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [5][7] Policy Perspective - The "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power Plan (2024-2035)" outlines a comprehensive strategy to enhance food security and modernize agricultural practices, with significant progress expected by 2027 [7] Profitability - The recovery in pig prices has positively impacted the financial performance of livestock companies, with牧原股份 reporting a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.43% [8] - Other companies in the sector, such as温氏股份 and巨星农牧, have also seen substantial growth in net profits [9] Institutional Insights - According to开源证券, the tariff escalation is expected to benefit domestic agricultural prices, particularly pig prices, due to rising raw material costs and the impact of imported meat [11] - Long江证券 suggests that while the industry may be entering a phase of declining prices due to increased supply, the current low valuations present investment opportunities [11] ETF Overview - The畜牧养殖ETF (516670) closely tracks the中证畜牧养殖指数, which covers over 60% of the pig farming industry chain, including upstream and downstream components such as vaccines and feed [11]