梅花生物(600873)：有望受益于豆粕价格上涨 看好公司业绩弹性及防御属性

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced an increase in tariffs on all imported goods from the United States, raising the tariff rate from 34% to 84%, which significantly impacts soybean imports [1] - The total tariff on U.S. soybeans has increased to 94%, which is expected to shift global soybean demand towards Brazil, benefiting domestic soybean meal prices [1] - In 2024, China's soybean imports are projected to be approximately 105 million tons, with 71% sourced from Brazil and 21% from the U.S., indicating a strong reliance on Brazilian soybeans due to seasonal factors [1] Group 2 - The rise in soybean meal prices is expected to positively impact company performance, as the correlation between soybean and corn prices may lead to an increase in corn prices, benefiting companies reliant on corn as a core cost item [2] - The company has announced a profit distribution plan for 2024, with a total cash dividend and buyback amounting to 2.27 billion yuan, representing 82.84% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, resulting in a dividend yield of 7.3% [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.04 billion, 3.34 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.9%, 10.0%, and 7.9%, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 9, and 9 times [2]