3月CPI低于预期不改美债跌势 一级需求强劲安慰市场

Group 1 - The U.S. March CPI data released on April 10 shows a decrease of 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% increase, indicating signs of easing inflation [1] - The year-on-year CPI rose by 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.6% and previous value of 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 2.8%, also below market expectations [1] - Following the CPI release, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from under 60% to 67% [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 9.34 basis points to 4.4249%, while the 30-year yield increased by 12.75 basis points to 4.8692% [2] - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion of 30-year bonds with a high yield of 4.813%, higher than the previous month's 4.623% but lower than the pre-auction yield [2] - Despite recent sell-offs, demand for U.S. Treasuries remains strong, with a direct bidder allocation rising to 25.8%, the second highest on record [2] Group 3 - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that the recent drop in U.S. Treasury prices could threaten financial stability, potentially influencing President Trump's decision to pause tariffs [3] - The rise in Treasury yields amid tariff-related financial turmoil has led investors to question the safe-haven status of U.S. government bonds [3] - Chicago Fed's Goolsbee noted that U.S. Treasury bonds have historically served as a safe haven, and the high tariffs pursued by Trump could impact the economy in ways that monetary policy may struggle to address [3]