Autodesk Dips 10% in 6 Months: Should You Hold or Fold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Autodesk's stock has underperformed in the past six months, declining 10%, while facing challenges from a new transaction model, restructuring efforts, and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Autodesk shares have dropped 10% over the last six months, compared to a 0.5% decline in the Zacks Internet-Software industry and a 6.4% decline in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The stock has slightly outperformed the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which saw a decline of 10.2% during the same period [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Autodesk is making progress in high-growth segments such as Construction and Manufacturing, adding nearly 400 new construction customers in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [3]. - The company is seeing strong adoption of its cloud-based platforms like Fusion and Forma, which enhance productivity and reduce costs for customers [3]. - Investments in AI, such as the AutoConstrain feature in Fusion, are improving product capabilities and user efficiency [4]. - The strategic focus on converging design and manufacturing workflows positions Autodesk well to meet evolving industry needs [4]. Group 3: Challenges - Autodesk faces intense competition in its core verticals, with competitors like Trimble in AEC and Dassault Systemes and Siemens in manufacturing [5]. - The ongoing shift from perpetual licenses to cloud-based subscriptions is pressuring top-line growth, alongside higher operating expenses and restructuring costs [6]. - Sustained earnings improvement will depend on Autodesk's ability to drive meaningful revenue growth over time [6]. Group 4: Guidance and Estimates - Autodesk expects non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $2.14-$2.17 and revenues between $1.60-$1.61 billion for Q1 of fiscal 2026 [7]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings is $2.14 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 14.44%, with revenues expected to increase by 13.32% to $1.61 billion [8]. - Autodesk has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.73% [8]. Group 5: Conclusion - Despite near-term challenges, Autodesk shows promise in key growth areas like cloud, AI, and construction, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [10]. - A significant portion of Autodesk's revenues comes from international operations, making it vulnerable to foreign currency fluctuations, particularly with a strengthening U.S. dollar [11].