【财经分析】机构建议把握4月配置时点 信用债布局仍可优选城投各券

Core Viewpoint - The current environment is favorable for credit bonds, with analysts suggesting that the time for the central bank to implement a selective easing policy has arrived, driven by tariff impacts and positive market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Bond Market Performance - Credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields declining significantly due to a shift towards a looser funding environment and the impact of unexpected U.S. tariff policies [2]. - As of April 1, the AA-rated one-year credit spread narrowed by 27 basis points (BP), while mid to long-term lower-rated bonds saw spreads narrow by over 10 BP [2]. - City investment bonds have outperformed the overall credit bond market, with three-year bonds across all ratings narrowing by over 10 BP [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Credit Bonds - April is typically a window for credit bond allocation in the second quarter, with historical data indicating that credit spreads often narrow from April to May [3]. - Increased market demand and reduced supply are expected to contribute to the narrowing of credit spreads during this period, with over 1 trillion yuan in growth in wealth management products historically observed in April [3]. - Analysts suggest that if the central bank's easing policy is implemented in the second quarter, April is likely to be a key period for credit bond allocation [3]. Group 3: Institutional Preferences - City investment bonds are favored by institutions due to their perceived lower risk and improved credit binding with local governments following debt resolution policies [4]. - The trading volume of lower-rated city investment bonds has increased significantly, particularly in regions like Hebei, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, and Chongqing, with monthly turnover rates exceeding 15% [4]. - Analysts recommend a "downward strategy" for city investment bonds, particularly focusing on bonds from central provinces while being cautious of high-profile regions [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to actively position themselves in credit bonds, leveraging the current favorable conditions for potential capital gains [6][7]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on AA-rated bonds with maturities of three years or more for short-term capital gains, and a "long duration + moderate downward" strategy for broader credit bond allocation [7]. - For risk-averse investors, AAA or AA+ rated bonds with maturities of five to seven years are recommended, balancing potential returns with risk management [7].