美元债市“暴动”倒逼政策调整：美国国债收益率飙升引发全球关注

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing significant turbulence, primarily driven by a sharp increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. government policies and global capital flows [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged over 40 basis points in a single week, marking the largest increase since 2003, indicating a mass sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by investors [3]. - The high risk premium on U.S. Treasuries reflects growing market concerns regarding long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical conflicts [3]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The turmoil in the bond market has pressured the Trump administration to reconsider its trade policies, particularly the recent decision to partially freeze tariff increases [3]. - The bond market's instability is seen as a direct influence on government borrowing costs, with fears that panic could spread from the Treasury to the White House, prompting policy shifts [3][4]. Group 3: Trade and Financing Concerns - The ongoing trade war is creating a "funding source crisis" for U.S. Treasuries, as major foreign creditors like China and Japan, who are also targets of tariff policies, may reduce their purchases of U.S. debt [4]. - The reduction in trade surpluses could diminish these countries' willingness and ability to invest in U.S. Treasuries, contradicting the Trump administration's goal of reducing trade deficits [3][4]. Group 4: Global Economic Shifts - There is a growing concern that U.S. unilateralism is undermining its reliability as an economic partner, leading countries to seek alternatives in regional supply chains and alliances [4]. - European nations are increasingly recognizing the unreliability of the U.S. as an ally, while Asian economies are promoting local currency settlements to mitigate dollar risks [4]. Group 5: Long-term Risks - Despite attempts to calm the markets by pausing tariff escalations, analysts believe that the structural issues revealed by the bond market turmoil are unlikely to be resolved in the short term [5]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is nearing 6% of GDP, a record high for non-crisis periods, while the combination of Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction and foreign investor withdrawal poses a dual threat to the demand for U.S. Treasuries [5]. - Investors are demanding higher risk premiums due to the potential for renewed trade conflicts and concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt [5].