以旧换新政策再升级，专家称车市稳内需效果将持续体现

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese passenger car market is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, particularly through the expansion of vehicle replacement subsidies [1][2][4] - The Shanghai government has announced that the vehicle replacement subsidy will now include old cars with foreign license plates, reflecting a trend seen in other provinces to attract consumers from surrounding areas [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued guidelines for the 2025 vehicle replacement program, which includes detailed subsidy standards and methods, leading to various local governments implementing specific measures [1][2] Group 2 - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" released in March emphasizes the importance of stimulating automobile consumption through various supportive policies, including the use of long-term special government bond funds for trade-in programs [2] - The plan allocates approximately 3 billion yuan in special government bonds for supporting the trade-in of consumer goods, which is expected to significantly enhance market vitality [2] - Data indicates that the number of vehicle trade-ins in 2024 is projected to exceed 6.8 million, marking a historical high, with a notable increase in vehicle scrappage rates in early 2023 [2] Group 3 - The China Automobile Dealers Association has highlighted the resilience of the domestic automobile market against U.S. tariffs, noting that the direct export volume of Chinese-made cars to the U.S. is relatively low [3] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on China's automotive production and consumption is minimal due to the low dependency on imports and the ability of the domestic supply chain to meet demand [3] - The retail sales of passenger cars in March 2023 reached 1.94 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, indicating a positive trend in the market [4]