华创证券：美国或开启新一轮通胀上行的螺旋

Group 1: Consumer Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have surged, with one-year expectations rising to 6.7% in April, the highest since November 1981, and five-year expectations reaching 4.4%, the highest since July 1991 [2][9] - Historical data indicates that consumer inflation perceptions are more sensitive and tend to rise 1-2 quarters before actual inflation increases [2][13] - Professional inflation forecasts have lagged behind actual inflation trends, with the latest Bloomberg consensus predicting a 3% year-on-year CPI, which may not fully account for tariff impacts [2][9] Group 2: Inflation Breadth - The breadth of inflation, indicating the range of price increases across the economy, has rebounded since last year, with the proportion of PCE prices rising from 62.7% to 72.5% [3][14] - The increase in inflation breadth suggests a higher likelihood of inflation expectations rising and exceeding forecasts, potentially leading to a more persistent inflation risk [3][14] Group 3: Tariff Price Transmission Effects - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not yet been reflected in the March CPI data, as the transmission from importers to retail takes time [4][19] - Research indicates that tariffs on intermediate goods can raise producer prices within 1-2 months, but consumer price impacts may take several months to manifest [4][19] Group 4: Food and Rent Inflation - Food inflation has risen, with CPI food prices increasing from 0.2% to 0.4% month-on-month in March, influenced by factors like avian flu and tariff expectations [5][20] - Rent inflation shows signs of rebound, with major rent increases observed, which could contribute to core inflation persistence due to its significant weight in the CPI [5][20] Group 5: Short-term Inflation Impact of Tariffs - Scenarios indicate that tariffs could raise the overall import tariff rate significantly, with potential CPI increases of 4.0% to 4.8% under certain tariff conditions [6][24] - The non-linear risk of inflation escalation due to tariffs suggests that actual impacts could exceed initial estimates [6][24] Group 6: Monetary Policy and Treasury Yield Implications - The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma due to significant inflation risks, with potential reluctance to lower interest rates unless there are drastic economic downturns [7][27] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are under pressure, influenced by liquidity shocks and potential investor distrust due to erratic trade policies [8][28]