Group 1: Market Outlook - Concerns about a global recession are easing, leading HSBC to favor copper and aluminum sectors in Asia [1] - HSBC expects significant short-term rebounds in prices of copper and aluminum commodities, supported by new stimulus policies in China [1][2] - The market's fears of a recession have been deemed overblown, with panic selling exceeding reasonable levels [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent data shows improved operating rates in downstream industries for copper and aluminum, indicating a seasonal demand recovery [2] - Tight supply conditions are confirmed by negative spot processing fees (TC/RC), and China's trade measures against the US will reduce scrap copper imports, impacting refined copper output [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market Outlook - The operational capacity for aluminum is nearing a ceiling of 45 million tons, with limited room for new supply [2] - If demand increases significantly due to China's stimulus policies, a supply shortage may occur in the aluminum market [2] Group 4: Company Specifics - China Hongqiao - HSBC maintains a target price of HKD 17.10 for China Hongqiao, using a forward P/E ratio of 7.5x based on projected EPS of RMB 2.16 for 2025 [3] - The target P/E is significantly above the historical average since 2018, indicating potential upside of over 30% [3] - HSBC's "buy" rating for China Hongqiao is supported by strong fundamentals and an attractive dividend yield of approximately 10% [3]
汇丰：铜铝板块回调后凸显配置价值 重申中国宏桥(01378)“买入”评级