亚洲SAF或走出口路线

Core Insights - The aviation industry is focusing on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as a key pathway to reduce carbon emissions, but in Asia, there is a significant mismatch between rapidly increasing supply and relatively stagnant demand [1] Group 1: Capacity Expansion - The SAF production capacity in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to leap to 3.5 million tons per year (77,671 barrels per day) by 2026, nearly doubling from 1.24 million tons per year in 2024 [2] - At least five SAF projects in Asia, excluding China, have either commenced production or are set to begin this year, with many targeting export markets, including Europe [2] - Investments in SAF projects in Southeast Asia have exceeded $500 million this year, with companies like PTT Global Chemical and Bangchak Oil planning to launch their SAF facilities [2] Group 2: Demand Growth Challenges - Despite the advantages of SAF in reducing carbon emissions, market demand in Asia is not keeping pace with the rapid expansion of production capacity [3] - Mandatory SAF usage in Asia will not begin until 2026, with countries like Singapore and Thailand requiring a 1% blend of SAF in aviation fuel, which is expected to only account for about 14% of their production capacity [3] - Some Asian airlines are voluntarily using SAF to enhance their green credentials, with the goal of achieving an average SAF blend of 5% by 2030 [3] Group 3: Price Barriers - The high cost of SAF compared to traditional aviation fuel is a significant barrier to its adoption, impacting airline profitability [4] - Airlines in Asia are currently prioritizing increasing flight numbers over the use of SAF, with limited forecasts for SAF usage in the near term [4] Group 4: Export Market Focus - Due to oversupply and insufficient demand, Asian SAF producers are increasingly looking to export markets, with over 370,000 tons of SAF expected to be exported in 2024 [5] - The price gap between SAF and traditional aviation fuel has narrowed from nearly three times last year to 2.4 times this year, indicating potential market adjustments [5] - Companies like Neste and EcoCeres are optimistic about future SAF demand, with projections of at least 7 million tons globally by 2030 and exploring export opportunities to various markets [5]