马棕增产周期来临库存止降回升 4月棕榈油价格或震荡下行

Core Viewpoint - The March report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) indicates a neutral to bearish impact on the palm oil market, with an increase in production and a rise in inventory after six months of decline [1][2]. Supply and Demand Summary - In March, Malaysia's palm oil production reached 1.3872 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.76%, while exports were 1.0055 million tons, up 0.91%. Imports surged by 82.51% to 121,900 tons, and ending stocks rose by 3.52% to 1.5626 million tons [2][6]. - The increase in production is attributed to seasonal factors, as March typically marks the beginning of the production cycle, with output slightly above the five-year average, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2][4]. - Demand remains weak, with exports at a low level due to high palm oil prices and reduced buying interest from major importer India during Ramadan, leading to a focus on inventory consumption [4][6]. Outlook for April - Production is expected to continue its upward trend, although initial data for April indicates a 35.47% decrease in production in the first five days due to holiday effects [7]. - Export volumes are anticipated to increase, with preliminary data showing a 29.29% rise in exports in the first ten days of April, driven by post-Ramadan restocking demand from India [7]. - Overall, the supply-demand dynamics suggest a continuation of inventory accumulation in April, leading to a bearish outlook for palm oil prices [7].