美伊冲突仍有恶化的可能 苯乙烯短期触底反弹看待

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7546.00 yuan and currently trading at 7520.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.69% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Wenkang Futures, the short-term outlook for styrene is viewed as a bottom rebound, supported by a significant drop in weekly production and inventory adjustments [2] - The recent announcement by Trump to suspend reciprocal tariff policies for most economies (excluding China) has temporarily alleviated macroeconomic concerns, allowing for potential price increases in the styrene market [2] - The supply side is experiencing a reduction in production due to maintenance, with 210,000 tons of capacity undergoing repairs, which is expected to support prices in the short term [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, the supply side has seen a 6.64% decrease in styrene production to 313,400 tons, with a corresponding drop in capacity utilization by 4.87% to 68.41% [3] - Demand from downstream sectors has weakened, with a 6.21% decrease in consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS to 243,000 tons [3] - Inventory levels have shown mixed trends, with factory inventory increasing by 11.30% to 228,300 tons, while East China port inventory decreased by 18.83% to 119,000 tons [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Wenkang Futures maintains a bearish view for the medium to long term, anticipating a price correction as production resumes in late May and early June amid ongoing trade tensions [2] - Ruida Futures highlights that the negative impact from end-user demand is expected to gradually affect upstream prices, indicating potential for a price decline in the future [3]