智通财经网·2025-04-14 08:15Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, expecting prices to reach $3,700 and $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year, respectively, driven by stronger-than-expected central bank demand and gold's role as a hedge against economic recession and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that central banks may purchase an average of 80 tons of gold per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tons, reinforcing their bullish stance on gold [3] - UBS anticipates strong demand across various segments, including central banks and retail investors, due to changing global trade and geopolitical conditions, which necessitate the allocation of safe-haven assets [3][4] Group 2 - Recent inflows into gold-backed ETFs have unexpectedly surged, reflecting new demand from investors seeking to hedge against recession risks and declines in risk asset prices [3] - Goldman Sachs economists estimate a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession, which could accelerate ETF inflows and push gold prices to $3,880 per ounce by year-end [3] - The liquidity situation may weaken, potentially amplifying gold price movements, partly due to limited growth in mine supply and significant gold holdings by central banks and ETFs [4]