Blackstone Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards for BX?

Core Viewpoint - Blackstone is expected to report an increase in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q1 2025, with a focus on its performance metrics and market conditions leading up to the announcement [1]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Blackstone's fourth-quarter 2024 distributable earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate, driven by increased segment revenues and higher assets under management (AUM), although rising expenses posed a challenge [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Blackstone's Q1 2025 earnings is $1.11, reflecting a 13.3% increase year-over-year, despite a recent downward revision of 6.7% [4]. - The average earnings surprise for Blackstone over the past four quarters is 5.54%, with earnings surpassing estimates in two quarters, meeting in one, and lagging in one [3]. Group 2: Assets Under Management - Blackstone has seen growth in fee-earning AUM and total AUM, attributed to its diversified product offerings and strong position in alternative investments, with total AUM expected to reach $1.15 trillion, a 9.1% increase year-over-year [5]. - The consensus estimate for total fee-earning AUM is $857.5 billion, indicating a rise of 9.7% [5]. Group 3: Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total management and advisory fees is $1.89 billion, suggesting a 10.5% increase, while fee-related performance revenues are estimated at $283.4 million, indicating a decline of 4.1% due to weak market performance [6]. - Revenues from realization activities are preliminarily estimated to exceed $385 million for the period from January 1 to March 25, 2025 [7]. Group 4: Expense Trends - Blackstone's expenses have been on the rise, primarily due to increased general, administrative, and other costs, as the company continues to invest in its franchises [9]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction Model - According to the quantitative model, the likelihood of Blackstone beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is low, as it lacks a positive Earnings ESP and holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [10][11].