CSEC,China Shenhua(SH:601088) 智通财经网·2025-04-15 03:40Group 1: Core Views - The coal price is expected to find a reasonable bottom support at 640-650 RMB/ton, with the industry unlikely to return to 2015 levels [1] - The coal sector is anticipated to see an upward turning point in April 2025, with prices expected to rebound in June due to summer peak demand [2] - The focus on dividend assets is expected to increase due to intensified market volatility from trade frictions [1] Group 2: Thermal Coal Insights - The coal industry has released sufficient risk, and upward potential is expected after April 2025, with the northern Huanghua Port Q5500 price stable at 675 RMB/ton [2] - Domestic production in Xinjiang has decreased, and coal transportation has shown a decline, while overseas imports are expected to decrease starting March [2] - Non-electric coal demand is projected to accelerate in April, potentially driving coal prices back up [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Analysis - The bottom for coking coal prices is expected to be established alongside thermal coal prices, with the main coking coal price at 1380 RMB/ton remaining stable [3] - The introduction of a market-oriented index by the Mongolian Exchange aims to boost exports, although supply and demand for coking coal remain under pressure [3] - The first round of price increases for coke has begun, but the rebound potential is limited [3] Group 4: Industry Review - As of April 12, 2025, the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port is 1380 RMB/ton, with a total inventory of 339.9 million tons across three ports [4] - The Australian Newcastle Port Q5500 offshore price increased by 1 USD/ton, while the northern port's price is 650 RMB/ton higher than Australian imports [4] - The cost of Australian coking coal has risen by 5 USD/ton, with domestic coking coal being cheaper than imported hard coking coal by 213 RMB/ton [4]