CVS Health vs. UnitedHealth: Which Healthcare Stock Has More Upside?

Core Viewpoint - CVS Health and UnitedHealth Group are two major players in the U.S. healthcare market, both having transformed their business models significantly to offer comprehensive healthcare solutions [1][2]. Performance Comparison - CVS Health has shown a remarkable recovery in 2025, becoming the top performer in the S&P 500 with a year-to-date return of 56%, while UnitedHealth ranks 16th with a 16.5% gain [3]. CVS Health Insights - CVS Health is focusing on margin recovery in its Aetna business, which saw a 23% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 despite an adjusted operating loss. The company projects $132 billion in healthcare benefits revenues for 2025 and aims for at least $1.5 billion in adjusted operating income [6][7]. - The company is executing a $2 billion multi-year cost efficiency initiative, expecting savings in 2025 to offset rising variable expenses [7]. - CVS Health generated $9.1 billion in operating cash flow in 2024, exceeding expectations, and projects $6.5 billion in cash flow for 2025, indicating strong financial stability [8]. UnitedHealth Group Insights - UnitedHealth faced challenges in 2024, including CMS Medicare rate cuts and a cyberattack, yet it deployed nearly $17 billion in growth capital and returned over $16 billion to shareholders [9]. - For 2025, UnitedHealth expects cash flow from operations to approach $33 billion, indicating robust profitability [10]. - Optum Health's revenues are projected to grow from $105 billion in 2024 to $117 billion in 2025, with a significant increase in patients receiving value-based care [11]. Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVS Health's 2025 earnings per share suggests an 8.7% improvement from 2024 [13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth's 2025 EPS implies a 7.5% improvement over the previous fiscal year [15]. Valuation Comparison - CVS is trading at a forward P/E of 11.25X, above its 5-year median of 9.25X, while UnitedHealth is at 19.06X, below its 5-year median and high [18][19]. Conclusion - UnitedHealth is currently viewed as a stronger buy due to better margins, cash flow, and a more attractive valuation compared to CVS Health, which is facing challenges with elevated medical costs [21].