Analysts Estimate Meritage Homes (MTH) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for Meritage Homes in the upcoming earnings report, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Meritage's quarterly earnings is $1.74 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 31.2% [3]. - Expected revenues are projected at $1.35 billion, down 8.4% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.46% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Meritage is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.86% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [6][7]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank increases the likelihood of a positive surprise, but Meritage currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [8][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Meritage exceeded earnings expectations significantly, posting earnings of $4.72 per share against an expectation of $2.21, resulting in a surprise of +113.57% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Meritage has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Conclusion - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, various factors can influence stock movement beyond just earnings results, making it essential to consider other elements before making investment decisions [14][16].