Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "ice and fire" is evident in China Duty Free Group (China Duty Free), where a new tax refund policy boosts stock prices despite ongoing declines in company performance and valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The State Taxation Administration announced the nationwide implementation of the "immediate purchase and refund" tax refund policy, which simplifies the refund process and stimulates inbound tourism potential [1][7]. - The new policy allows foreign tourists to experience tax refunds more directly, potentially increasing their willingness to spend [8]. - Historical data from Japan indicates that similar tax refund policies significantly enhance inbound tourist spending, suggesting a positive outlook for the Chinese market [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - In 2024, China Duty Free is projected to see a revenue decline of 16.38% to 56.474 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 36.44% to 4.267 billion yuan, indicating significant performance pressure [3][4]. - The company's sales from duty-free goods decreased by 12.58% to approximately 38.666 billion yuan, while taxable goods sales fell by 23.49% to about 17.095 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in online business due to competition [3][4]. - The Hainan region, a core market for the company, experienced a revenue decline of 27.13%, significantly impacting overall performance [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite an increase in market share in Hainan, the overall market contraction means that this gain did not translate into revenue growth [4]. - The competitive landscape has intensified with the opening of new duty-free stores, reducing the company's monopoly advantage [4][10]. - The company's profit margins are under pressure due to increased discounting and rising operational costs, with a notable 76.9% drop in net profit in the fourth quarter [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The recovery of the Hainan market is expected to rely on policy stimuli, such as increased tax refund limits, and will face challenges from international competition post-border closure [6]. - The overall trend of policy support and consumer recovery suggests a potential for sustained recovery in the duty-free market [10]. - China Duty Free holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market, positioning it well to benefit from the anticipated growth in inbound tourism [8][10].
中国中免(01880)：“冷热效应”下，短期业绩承压、长期价值可期?