开源证券：3月消费需求保持温和复苏 零食企业成长逻辑较好

Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a rebound in the growth rate of social retail sales in March 2025, primarily driven by the expansion of the "old-for-new" policy and the recovery of consumer confidence [1] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that domestic consumption demand is expected to be significantly boosted by further expansionary policies, particularly benefiting the food and beverage sector [1] - The liquor industry is positioned at the bottom of its cycle, with a high probability of a stable upward trend in the medium to long term [1] Monthly Observation - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth rate improvement of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February [1] - The restaurant and retail sectors saw a notable increase in growth rates, with restaurant income rising by 5.6% year-on-year and 6.8% for large-scale restaurants, reflecting a recovery in dining consumption [1] - Specific categories such as grain and oil food, beverages, and tobacco and alcohol saw year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 4.4%, and 8.5%, respectively, indicating a steady increase in essential consumption [1] Quarterly Observation - In Q1 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to Q4 2024, indicating ongoing improvement in consumer spending [2] - Restaurant income for Q1 2025 also increased by 4.7% year-on-year, benefiting from improved consumer demand [2] - The grain and oil food category maintained a high growth rate of 12.2% year-on-year, while beverages and tobacco and alcohol categories showed improvements in growth rates compared to Q4 2024 [2] Industry Observation - Major liquor companies are adjusting their targets and managing channel pressures to ensure a smooth transition, with expectations of stable performance in Q1 2025 [3] - The snack food sector is anticipated to experience a gradual acceleration in performance in Q2 2025, supported by channel reforms and category expansion [3] - The overall industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, driven by favorable growth logic in the snack food segment [3]