Earnings Preview: American Airlines (AAL) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for American Airlines due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on April 24, 2025, with a consensus estimate of a quarterly loss of $0.69 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -102.9% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $12.52 billion, a decrease of 0.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 26.38% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0% [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likelihood of deviation from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [7][8]. - American Airlines currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, American Airlines exceeded expectations with earnings of $0.86 per share against an estimate of $0.64, achieving a surprise of +34.38% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - While American Airlines does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, other factors should also be considered when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].