ZACKSยท2025-04-17 17:00Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. and Deere & Company are two leading heavy equipment manufacturers facing challenges in their respective markets, with Caterpillar experiencing revenue declines and Deere aligning production with demand due to weak market conditions [2][3][10]. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) - CAT's revenues have declined for the past four quarters, with earnings falling in the last two quarters due to volume weakness in Resource Industries and Construction Industries [3][4]. - The company expects a slight revenue dip in 2025 from the 2024 reported number of $64.8 billion, driven by lower sales in Construction and Resource Industries [7]. - CAT anticipates its adjusted operating margin to be in the top half of its target range, with a broad revenue guidance of $42-$72 billion and margins between 10% and 22% [7]. - The U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is expected to create opportunities for CAT's construction equipment portfolio, while demand for mining equipment is anticipated to rise due to the shift toward clean energy [8]. - CAT is focused on doubling its service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion in 2026, capitalizing on growth in aftermarket parts and service-related revenues [9]. Deere & Company (DE) - DE has experienced top-line declines for the past six quarters and lower earnings over the last five due to weak farmer spending and rising costs [10][12]. - The company expects sales volumes to decline in 2025 across all segments, including Production & Precision Agriculture and Construction & Forestry [12]. - DE's fiscal 2025 net income is projected to be between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, indicating a 26% decline from the previous year's net income of $7.1 billion [13]. - Despite current weaknesses, long-term agricultural equipment demand is supported by global food demand and the need to replace aging equipment [15][16]. - DE is well-positioned for growth through consistent investments in innovation and geographic expansion, focusing on advanced technologies in agriculture [16]. Financial Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAT's 2025 earnings is $19.32, reflecting an 11.8% year-over-year decline, while DE's estimate is $19.15, indicating a 25.3% decline [19][20]. - Year-to-date, CAT's stock has declined by 20%, while DE has gained 6.8%, outperforming the Industrial Products Sector and the S&P 500 [21]. - CAT is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 14.45X, lower than its five-year median, while DE is at 22.14X, higher than its five-year median [23]. - CAT's return on equity is 58.18%, significantly higher than DE's 27.31%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [24]. - CAT's dividend yield of 1.94% surpasses DE's 1.43%, making it more attractive for income-focused investors [27]. Investment Considerations - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating challenges in choosing between them [28]. - While DE has strong long-term prospects tied to food demand and agricultural technology, its current valuation is less favorable compared to CAT [29]. - CAT offers a higher dividend yield and more attractive valuation, benefiting from trends like infrastructure spending and AI-driven growth [30].