湘财证券研究所所长曹旭特： 美债波动 催生人民币国际化机遇

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market, exacerbated by new tariffs on China and debt monetization policies, raises global concerns about the credibility of US debt, prompting China to reassess its financial strategies and reduce reliance on the US dollar [1][7]. Short-term Impacts - The rise and fluctuation of US Treasury yields reflect market concerns over US fiscal sustainability and debt monetization, impacting China in three main areas: 1. Valuation fluctuations of foreign exchange reserves, with a potential decrease in the value of US Treasury assets affecting overall reserves [2]. 2. Capital flow pressures, as rising yields may attract short-term capital back to the US, increasing outflows from emerging markets and causing potential volatility in the RMB exchange rate [2]. 3. Challenges in liquidity management, as fluctuations in Treasury prices could affect the efficiency of China's foreign exchange reserve management [2]. Short-term Response Measures - To mitigate these impacts, China can adopt three strategies: 1. Optimize the structure of US Treasury holdings by increasing the proportion of short-term bonds to enhance liquidity and payment capacity [3]. 2. Strengthen foreign exchange market intervention capabilities to stabilize RMB expectations and prevent market panic [3]. 3. Diversify foreign exchange reserves by increasing holdings in gold, special drawing rights, and bonds from BRICS nations to reduce dependence on US dollar assets [3]. Long-term Strategies - In the long term, the US may implement two main measures that could further impact the Treasury market: 1. Technical defaults, such as delaying interest or principal payments, which would undermine the credibility of US debt [4]. 2. Accelerated debt monetization, with the Federal Reserve potentially engaging in large-scale bond purchases, leading to dollar depreciation and dilution of creditor asset values [4]. - To address these challenges, China should develop a systematic response capability, focusing on: 1. Conducting stress tests and emergency plans for various scenarios, including enhancing liquidity emergency plans and activating emergency liquidity swap arrangements with commercial banks [5]. 2. Promoting the securitization of infrastructure revenue rights to create a new type of sovereign bond as an alternative to US Treasuries [5]. 3. Accelerating the internationalization of the RMB by expanding the coverage of the cross-border payment system and enhancing digital currency projects with ASEAN and BRICS countries [5]. Progress in Reducing Dollar Dependence - From early 2018 to the end of 2024, China's total holdings of US Treasuries decreased by 35%, with the proportion of Treasuries in foreign exchange reserves dropping from 37% to 24%, and the share of foreign-held Treasuries falling from 18.9% to 8.9% [7]. This indicates substantial progress in reducing reliance on the US dollar and presents an opportunity for China to leverage the situation for further financial strategy development [7].