昆山杜克大学常务副校长约翰·奎尔奇：高关税将侵蚀美国低收入群体的实际收入

Core Viewpoint - The trade war between the US and China is becoming a "new normal" in global trade, with both parties reaching an unprecedented consensus on linking trade policy to national resilience and security goals [1][5]. Impact on Consumers and Businesses - High tariffs typically lead to increased prices for imported goods, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers, eroding their real income, particularly affecting low-income groups [1][3]. - A study from Yale University indicates that a 25% tariff on global imports could raise US consumer prices by 2.1% to 2.6%, with additional costs of $1,300 for low-income households, $2,100 for middle-income households, and $5,400 for high-income households [1]. Long-term Effects on Trade and Investment - The trade war exacerbates international trade friction, raising operational costs for businesses, which may suppress bilateral investment and force companies to restructure supply chains, thereby reducing overall efficiency [3]. - While some domestic industries may benefit in the short term, the greater risk lies in the increased uncertainty in the business environment, which can undermine strategic planning, especially for companies reliant on cross-border collaboration [3]. Policy Implications and Recommendations - To address the challenges posed by rising input costs and weak domestic demand, targeted fiscal policies and structural reforms are essential for maintaining price stability and promoting sustainable economic growth in China [1][8]. - Companies are advised to enhance adaptability by diversifying supply chains, advancing digital transformation, and strengthening risk management, while also keeping a close watch on regulatory changes and exploring emerging market opportunities [6][7]. Future Trade Landscape - The current trade policies are evolving beyond economic considerations, becoming strategic tools for national security, technological advantage, and geopolitical competition [4]. - The future of international trade is expected to be characterized by diversification and complexity, with multilateralism being replaced by a network of regional and bilateral mechanisms, emphasizing technology, security, and sustainability as core elements of the new trade order [9].