卡游闯关港股：百亿营收的“谷子经济”巨头，IP隐忧待解

Company Overview - KAYOU Limited is a leading company in the pan-entertainment product sector, focusing on IP-based physical products such as toys and stationery [2] - The company has a diverse product range, with collectible card games being its core offering, and is expanding into other categories like figurines and stationery [2] Financial Performance - KAYOU's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with figures of 4.131 billion, 2.662 billion, and 10.057 billion RMB for the years 2022 to 2024, respectively, crossing the 10 billion RMB mark [2] - Operating profits for the same period are expected to be 1.803 billion, 0.831 billion, and 3.707 billion RMB, while net profits show a fluctuation with losses in 2022 and 2024 [2][3] - Adjusted net profits under non-IFRS measures are forecasted to be 1.620 billion, 0.934 billion, and 4.466 billion RMB for 2022 to 2024 [3] Market Position - KAYOU holds a leading market share in the pan-entertainment product industry, with 13.3% overall and 21.5% in the pan-entertainment toy sector, and dominates the collectible card game market with a 71.1% share [2] - The company is also the top player in the pan-entertainment stationery market with a 24.3% share [2] Industry Growth - The pan-entertainment product market in China is expected to grow from 91.9 billion RMB in 2019 to 174.1 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% [4] - The collectible card game segment is projected to grow at a remarkable CAGR of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, representing 25.8% of the overall pan-entertainment toy market by 2024 [4] IP Dependency - KAYOU has a diverse IP matrix consisting of 70 IPs, but only one is proprietary, raising concerns about reliance on licensed IPs [5][6] - A significant portion of revenue comes from non-exclusive IP arrangements, with 96.0%, 82.3%, and 88.0% of total revenue derived from such products from 2022 to 2024 [6] - The company faces potential risks as 38 IP licensing agreements are set to expire by 2025, necessitating negotiations for renewals [6] Business Structure - The stationery segment has shown impressive growth, increasing from 20.9 million RMB to over 500 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, but remains a small part of overall revenue [7] - KAYOU's performance is heavily reliant on the collectible card game segment, indicating a risk associated with dependence on a single product line [7]