Core Insights - Miniso reported a revenue growth of 22.8% to 17 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 15.4% to 2.72 billion yuan in 2024, with a record high gross margin of 44.9% [1] - However, the financial results reveal underlying risks in cost control, market expansion, and brand competition [1] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market growth is weak, with revenue increasing only 2.8%, significantly lower than the 42% growth in overseas markets [2] - Same-store sales have declined, indicating reliance on store expansion rather than improvement in single-store efficiency [2] - Increased competition from brands like KKV and Green Party is pressuring Miniso's market share, as these competitors attract young consumers with differentiated product strategies [2] - Inventory turnover days have risen to 81 days, with 74% of inventory in domestic stores, and 12% of inventory over 180 days, suggesting potential markdown risks [2] - Rising rent and labor costs are adding to the financial pressure, particularly with an increased proportion of direct-operated stores [2] Overseas Expansion Risks - Nearly 40% of Miniso's revenue comes from overseas markets, but expansion faces multiple risks, including policy uncertainties [3] - The number of stores in the U.S. has grown from under 100 in 2021 to 275 in 2024, but future growth may be hindered by export tariffs, rising logistics costs, and geopolitical risks [3] - Signs of market saturation are emerging in some overseas markets, such as the U.K., where same-store sales growth is slowing [3] - International competitors like IKEA and H&M are intensifying market competition [3] - Miniso's product line abroad primarily consists of small to medium-sized household goods, lacking differentiated innovation [3] Summary and Recommendations - The 2024 financial report highlights multiple risks in cost control, market expansion, and brand competition for Miniso [4] - Investors should focus on the company's inventory management and cost control capabilities, particularly in domestic market inventory turnover efficiency and gross margin improvement [5] - The policy risks and intensified competition in overseas markets may pressure future revenue growth, necessitating careful evaluation of Miniso's globalization strategy [5] - The company should enhance product innovation to improve the competitiveness of core products in response to increasing market competition [6]
名创优品2024年增长背后暗藏隐忧：同店销售额下滑 海外扩张政策存不确定性与市场愈发饱和