要求不起火、不爆炸，“最严”动力电池新国标影响力几何

Core Viewpoint - The new national standard GB38031-2025 for electric vehicle power batteries, described as the "strictest ever," aims to address long-standing safety issues in the industry, particularly concerning battery fires and explosions [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections New National Standard Implementation - The new standard will be implemented in phases, with new model approvals required to comply by July 1, 2026, and existing approved models by July 1, 2027, allowing approximately one year for companies to upgrade their technologies [2]. Safety Testing Requirements - The new standard includes seven individual tests and 17 battery pack or system tests, focusing on three main areas: revised thermal diffusion testing, new bottom impact testing, and new safety testing after fast charging cycles [4][5]. - The thermal diffusion test now requires batteries to not catch fire or explode, with additional specifications for temperature and observation conditions [4]. - The bottom impact test assesses the battery's protective capabilities against impacts, requiring no leakage or fire after being struck [4]. - Fast charging safety tests require batteries to undergo external short circuit tests after 300 fast charge cycles, with a maximum charging time of 15 minutes from 20% to 80% state of charge (SOC) [5]. Industry Response and Challenges - Industry experts indicate that the new standard signals a shift from "development priority" to "quality priority," emphasizing long-term stability and public safety over mere production capacity [6]. - Some industry insiders express concerns that many companies may struggle to meet the new standards due to a lack of core technology, funding issues, and the need for significant production line upgrades [7][8]. - The new standard is expected to drive technological advancements across the industry, pushing companies to improve their battery materials and structures [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The number of battery companies in the market has increased, but the proportion of battery production used in vehicles has decreased, indicating an oversupply issue in the industry [10]. - Major battery manufacturers like CATL and BYD are reportedly already meeting or exceeding the new standards, while some smaller companies may face challenges [11][12]. Future Implications - While many companies are optimistic about meeting the new standards, experts caution that compliance does not guarantee the complete elimination of fire risks, as real-world conditions may exceed standard testing scenarios [12].