Is It Too Late to Buy Coupang Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Coupang's stock has experienced significant volatility since its IPO, losing over 50% of its value but recovering 130% from its May 2022 low, raising questions about the timing for potential investors [1][10]. Group 1: Growth Prospects - Coupang operates in a relatively small market with an addressable population of less than 100 million, compared to competitors like MercadoLibre, which serves over 650 million [2]. - The company has a strong logistics network with over 100 fulfillment centers in South Korea, enabling same-day or next-day delivery for 70% of the population [3]. - The South Korean e-commerce market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%, suggesting ongoing growth potential for Coupang [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Coupang's revenue for 2024 is projected to exceed $30 billion, reflecting a 24$66 million in 2024, impacted by a one-time income tax benefit of $776 million in 2023, but generated over$1 billion in free cash flow [5]. - Revenue growth is expected to slow to 14% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 15% in 2026, which may concern investors [6]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Coupang's price-to-free cash flow ratio is around 39, above the historical average of 34, indicating a potentially expensive valuation [7]. - The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has remained stable at 1.3, showing little variance in recent years [7]. - Despite the mixed valuation metrics, the perception of Coupang as a lucrative opportunity may still attract buyers [8]. Group 4: Investment Timing - Current conditions suggest it may not be too late to buy Coupang stock, but the timing may not present a lucrative opportunity given the slowing revenue growth [9][11]. - The stock has significantly declined since its IPO, losing over 80% of its value by May 2022, and even with a recovery, it remains below its all-time high [10].