美股三大指数上周齐跌，机构：一切都取决于全球贸易形势

Market Overview - Since April 2, the S&P 500 index has declined by approximately 7% [5] - The recent rebound in the U.S. stock market driven by the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration was short-lived, with all three major indices falling over 1.5% last week [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) dropped nearly 30% in the past week but remains above historical averages, indicating ongoing investor anxiety [5] Employment and Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a two-month low, suggesting stability in the labor market for April [3] - However, manufacturing firms are reportedly beginning to reduce working hours, with the Philadelphia Fed indicating a sharp contraction in average weekly hours for factories in the central U.S. [3] - Economists are preparing for a potential rise in the unemployment rate in the coming months, particularly concerned about small businesses that are significantly impacted by tariff policy uncertainties [3] Federal Reserve's Stance - Some Federal Reserve policymakers are worried about the imminent impact on employment and are preparing for potential rapid interest rate cuts [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that tariffs could exacerbate inflation, which may force a reevaluation of the U.S. interest rate strategy, but he emphasized the Fed's ability to wait for clearer conditions before making decisions [3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - A recent Bank of America fund manager survey revealed a rapid shift to pessimism regarding the U.S. stock market, with 36% reducing their U.S. stock holdings in April [6] - The sentiment level is reported to be the fifth lowest in history, with cash holdings among fund managers rising to 4.8%, the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began [6] - Global economic growth expectations have fallen to a 30-year low, with 49% of respondents believing a hard landing is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months [6] Corporate Earnings Outlook - Market forecasts for S&P 500 earnings growth have declined, with expected growth of 9.2% by 2025, significantly lower than the 14% estimated at the beginning of the year [6] - Major companies such as Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, IBM, Merck, Intel, and Procter & Gamble are set to report earnings in the coming week, drawing significant attention from investors [6] - Jefferies has downgraded its target for the S&P 500 index from 6000 to 5300, reflecting a bleak outlook for corporate earnings [6] Trade Negotiations and Market Impact - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and its trade partners remain a focal point, with the potential for a market rebound if an agreement is reached [7] - The longer the negotiations take, the greater the impact on the economy and stock market [7] - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields may provide some relief to the market, influenced by comments from the Boston Fed President regarding potential market interventions [7]