兴业证券：当前市场“东稳西荡” 聚焦内部的确定性 三大主线防守反击

Core Viewpoint - The current market is characterized by a "stable East and turbulent West" global macro environment, emphasizing the need for confidence and a focus on internal certainties [1] Group 1: Market Environment - Since April, external uncertainties have continued to disrupt the market, with the U.S. imposing a 245% tariff on China and trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU at a standstill [1][2] - The domestic economy remains stable, with a Q1 GDP growth of 5.4% and signs of recovery in March, which is expected to further stabilize market confidence [3] - The Chinese government has actively responded to external uncertainties, with measures to stabilize the stock market and promote healthy development in the real estate sector [3][5] Group 2: Investment Focus - Internal demand and self-sufficiency are seen as key areas for long-term economic transition and short-term policy support, making them focal points for market attention [5][6] - As the earnings season begins in April, low-performing stocks with strong earnings improvement expectations are identified as having high certainty for future performance, particularly in sectors like consumption, finance, infrastructure, and TMT [7] - Classifying dividend assets into categories such as quasi-bond dividends, cyclical dividends, and consumption dividends, quasi-bond dividends are recommended as stable foundational investments due to their lower volatility and strong correlation with long-term bond yields [8]