红旗连锁(002697)：业绩短期承压 结构优化进行时

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 10.12 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, down 7.12% year-on-year, primarily due to weak downstream demand and intensified industry competition [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.48 billion yuan, a decline of 7.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 4.15% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 150 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.72% year-on-year, indicating resilience in core business profitability [1] - The gross margin for 2024 slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 29.4%, attributed to increased promotional activities and cost pressures. The expense ratios for sales, management, and finance decreased by 0.2 percentage points, 0.1 percentage points, and remained stable at 22.6%, 1.4%, and 0.6% respectively, indicating good expense control. Overall, the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.2% [3] Growth Highlights - The tobacco and alcohol categories, along with the suburban market, emerged as growth highlights, with revenues for tobacco and alcohol, food, and daily necessities showing year-on-year changes of +4.30%, -0.74%, and -6.53% respectively, reaching 3.52 billion, 4.56 billion, and 1.29 billion yuan. The tobacco and alcohol category led in growth [2] - The company is witnessing a trend of revenue migration towards lower-tier markets, with revenues in Chengdu urban areas and suburban areas showing year-on-year changes of -6.58% and +12.39%, reaching 5.27 billion and 3.71 billion yuan respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on deepening its omnichannel integration strategy, achieving over 1 billion yuan in sales through online platforms like Douyin live streaming, while offline channels are driving customer engagement [2] - The change in the actual controller to the Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is expected to leverage synergies with entities like Sichuan Commerce Investment Urban-Rural Construction Group, marking a new development phase for the company [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to explore social e-commerce partnerships, unmanned retail, and meet immediate demand to expand its growth, alongside optimizing its tail-end channels for quality and efficiency improvements [4] - Due to uncertainties in downstream consumer demand recovery, the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 11.6% and 8.3% to 550 million and 600 million yuan respectively, with an introduction of 2027 EPS at 0.45 yuan [5]