美国关税新政的影响可能超过预期 包括推高通胀、减缓经济增长

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of monetary policy relies on public understanding of the Federal Reserve's goals and actions, particularly in the context of current economic conditions and future monetary policy outlook [1]. Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability, with recent data indicating a solid economic growth momentum despite rising uncertainties from trade policies [2]. - Economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow down significantly this year, with preliminary GDP data for Q1 2025 to be released soon, reflecting potential economic deceleration [2]. - Surveys of households and businesses suggest a changing economic landscape, with a less optimistic growth outlook due to new government policies, particularly in trade [2]. Labor Market and Inflation Analysis - The labor market is currently balanced, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.2% as of March, and an average of 150,000 new jobs added monthly in Q1 [3]. - Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak post-COVID-19, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months, and core PCE rising by 2.8% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's pace towards the 2% inflation target has slowed due to ongoing price level declines without a corresponding rise in unemployment [3]. Impact of Tariff Policies - The effects of new tariff policies are expected to gradually manifest in the economy, potentially increasing short-term inflation expectations, although long-term inflation expectations remain stable [4]. - The dual risks of rising unemployment and inflation are increasing due to significant policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff adjustments may lead to inflationary pressures and slower economic growth, with the extent and duration of these impacts still uncertain [6]. Conclusion on Economic Stability - High inflation and unemployment pose significant risks to households and businesses, emphasizing the importance of achieving full employment and price stability [7]. - The Federal Reserve is committed to navigating the complexities of current economic conditions to fulfill its dual mandate effectively [7].