关税冲击下 美跨国企业加码长期货币对冲应对汇率波动

Core Viewpoint - U.S. multinational companies are extending their currency hedging periods to protect cash flows from potential exchange rate fluctuations caused by the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, reflecting increased uncertainty in the global trade landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Hedging Adjustments - The adjustment in hedging periods indicates that multinational companies are facing heightened uncertainty amid concerns over economic recession and a weakening dollar [1]. - Following the announcement of higher-than-expected global tariffs on April 2, volatility in the foreign exchange market surged, leading to unrealized losses in some companies' hedging positions [1]. - Companies that have managed to withstand volatility are also beginning to extend their hedging periods, with some clients extending to the maximum available duration to lock in protective measures [1][2]. Group 2: Rising Costs of Short-term Hedging - The increase in volatility has raised the costs of short-term hedging tools, prompting companies to extend their hedging periods [2]. - Implied volatility for one-month and three-month parity options has increased by 72% and 46% respectively since April 2, leading to higher costs for companies to mitigate potential short-term losses [2]. Group 3: Shift in Options Strategy - The impact of tariffs has disrupted market expectations for the euro, with a stronger euro increasing operational costs for U.S. companies with significant sales in Europe [3]. - Companies are increasingly building protective mechanisms, particularly those needing to purchase goods and materials priced in euros [3]. - There is a growing demand for "window forward contracts," which combine the advantages of forward contracts with flexible execution times, suitable for companies facing cash flow uncertainties [3]. - More clients are shifting from forward hedging to options strategies to gain greater flexibility amid ongoing trade tensions [3].