上财报告：特朗普政府关税或削弱美元的国际货币信用

Core Insights - The establishment of the China Macroeconomic Research Center at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and the release of the "Q1 2025 Macroeconomic Special Report" highlight the changing dynamics of China's export market, particularly the decreasing share of the U.S. market in China's exports from 19% in 2017 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a diversification strategy and enhanced product competitiveness [1][2] Group 1 - The report indicates that China's export resilience against U.S. tariffs has been strengthened through market diversification and domestic market construction, which helps mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs [1] - The current U.S. trade policy under the Trump 2.0 framework is characterized as extreme and uncertain, reflecting multiple domestic issues in the U.S. and potentially exacerbating internal conflicts [1] - China's foreign trade remains stable but faces challenges such as weak import demand and the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which complicate the strategy of exchanging price for volume [1] Group 2 - The research team suggests short-term measures such as retaliatory actions, delaying RMB depreciation, and providing subsidies to export enterprises, while advocating for long-term reforms to enhance the internationalization of the RMB [2] - The vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center emphasizes the need for strong measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize the economy, including proactive fiscal policies and improving consumer capacity [2] - The chief economist of Zhongtai International notes that U.S. pressure may incentivize China's economic transformation, advocating for fiscal reforms to stimulate domestic demand and shift from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economy [2]