Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials believe there is currently no need to adjust the existing gradual interest rate hike policy despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [1] - Officials maintain that the overall economic outlook remains unchanged while waiting for more data to assess the impact of tariffs [1][3] - The BOJ is expected to present a baseline scenario forecast during the upcoming policy meeting, but will also indicate that economic prospects remain uncertain due to tariff policies [3] Group 2 - The BOJ is considering contingency plans for extreme scenarios due to multiple risks to the economy and inflation [4] - A potential downward adjustment of inflation expectations is likely in the quarterly economic report following the policy meeting, influenced by a stronger yen, falling oil prices, and possible economic weakness [4] - The core inflation forecast for FY2027 is expected to remain around 2%, despite the recent appreciation of the yen by approximately 11% against the dollar and a 13% drop in oil prices [4] Group 3 - The BOJ's current core CPI projection for FY25 is 2.4% and for FY26 is 2% [5] - The BOJ may discuss lowering the economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year from 1.1%, with Barclays economists predicting a significant reduction to around 0.5% due to tariff impacts [5]
传日本央行拟维持渐进加息立场 美国关税政策影响尚待观察
智通财经网·2025-04-21 12:01