Interactive Brokers vs. BGC: Which Brokerage Stock is the Better Buy?

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment poses challenges for both Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and BGC Group (BGC), with expectations of subdued trading activity impacting their income potential. However, BGC is positioned to deliver stronger growth and returns compared to IBKR, making it a more attractive investment option [2][3][29]. Group 1: Company Overview - Interactive Brokers is recognized for its advanced electronic trading platforms and global market access, while BGC Group specializes in a wide range of brokerage services, including fixed-income and derivatives trading [2][12]. - Both companies have seen increased trading activities due to market turmoil, but future trading activity is expected to weaken as market participants anticipate lasting economic damage from tariffs [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - IBKR's stock has decreased by 9.7% this year, while BGC's shares have fallen by 6.6% [3]. - IBKR has maintained low compensation expenses relative to net revenues, achieving 14.8% in 2022, 12.1% in 2023, and 11.1% in 2024, with a further reduction to 9.3% in Q1 2025 [6]. - BGC Group's revenues have recorded a CAGR of 1.5% over the past five years, while IBKR's client accounts, total client Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs), and net revenues have seen CAGRs of 37%, 26%, and 22%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [10][15]. Group 3: Growth Initiatives - IBKR has expanded its global presence with initiatives such as launching a prediction markets hub in Canada and introducing IBKR GlobalTrader for mobile stock trading [7]. - BGC Group has focused on technology-driven services post its spin-off of Newmark, enhancing margins and reducing reliance on traditional models [13]. - BGC has made strategic acquisitions, including OTC Global Holdings for $325 million, which is expected to contribute over $450 million in annual revenues [14]. Group 4: Valuation and Comparisons - IBKR is trading at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) of 1.00X, while BGC is at 13.60X, with BGC's premium valuation justified by its superior growth trajectory [20][21]. - BGC's return on equity (ROE) stands at 47.55%, significantly higher than IBKR's 4.97% and the industry average of 11.95% [24]. - BGC's dividend yield is 0.95%, compared to IBKR's 0.63% [26]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IBKR's revenue growth is projected at 4.5% for 2025 and 6.1% for 2026, while BGC's revenue growth is expected to be 20.4% and 14% for the same years [18]. - Analysts are more optimistic about BGC's earnings, forecasting a 23.3% increase for 2025 and 18.4% for 2026, with estimates remaining unchanged [18].