Insights Into Meritage (MTH) Q1: Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Meritage Homes (MTH) will report quarterly earnings of $1.71 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 32.4%, with revenues expected to reach $1.35 billion, down 8.4% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.5%, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate total closing revenue for homebuilding at $1.35 billion, representing an 8% decline from the prior-year quarter [5]. - Home closing revenue is also projected at $1.35 billion, indicating an 8.1% decrease from the same quarter last year [5]. - Financial services revenue is expected to reach $6.42 million, showing a 1% increase from the year-ago quarter [5]. Home Orders and Backlog - Total homes ordered are projected to be 4,222, up from 3,991 reported in the same quarter last year [6]. - Average sales price for home closing revenue is expected to be $399.89, down from $418 in the previous year [6]. - Order backlog is estimated at 2,398, compared to 3,033 reported in the same quarter last year [6]. Homes Closed and Backlog Value - The consensus estimate for total homes closed is 3,368, down from 3,507 in the previous year [7]. - Order backlog average sales price is projected at $404.29, compared to $410 in the same quarter last year [7]. - Order backlog value is expected to reach $975.98 million, down from $1.24 billion in the previous year [7]. Active Communities and Home Orders Value - Analysts estimate that active communities will total 300, compared to 275 in the previous year [8]. - Homes ordered value is projected to be $1.68 billion, slightly up from $1.63 billion in the previous year [8]. Average Sales Price - Home orders average sales price is expected to be $399.08, down from $409 in the same quarter last year [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Meritage shares have declined by 7.5%, compared to a 5.6% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [10].