Decline in NII & Fee Income to Hurt Northern Trust's Q1 Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is expected to report improved revenues and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with a positive earnings surprise history and a consensus estimate indicating growth compared to the previous year [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTRS' first-quarter earnings is $1.85 per share, reflecting an 8.8% increase year-over-year [3]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is $1.95 billion, indicating an 18.2% year-over-year rise [3]. Key Factors Influencing Results - Net Interest Income (NII) is estimated at $561.3 million, showing a sequential decline of 0.5% due to higher funding costs amid unchanged interest rates [4]. - Average earning assets are projected at $134.1 billion, indicating a marginal rise from the previous quarter [6]. Non-Interest Income Insights - Custody and fund administration fees are estimated at $447 million, reflecting a 2% sequential decline, while investment management fees are pegged at $153 million, indicating a decline of 1.9% [7]. - Total wealth management fees are estimated at $543.4 million, showing a sequential fall of 1.3% [8]. Expense and Asset Quality Considerations - Expenses are expected to be high due to increased compensation and investments in equipment and software [9]. - Non-performing assets are estimated at $65.1 million, indicating a 16.2% rise sequentially [10]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Northern Trust, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [11][12].