Can Synchrony Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates on Improving Margin?

Core Viewpoint - Synchrony Financial (SYF) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 22, 2025, with earnings estimated at $1.66 per share and revenues of $4.55 billion, indicating a year-over-year earnings increase of 40.7% and revenue growth of 3.4% [1][2] Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Synchrony's total revenues in 2025 is $18.62 billion, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 3.4% [2] - The consensus estimate for current year EPS is $7.58, suggesting a year-over-year increase of approximately 15% [2] - Synchrony has beaten the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.8% [2] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a likely earnings beat for Synchrony, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.29% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] Factors Influencing Q1 Results - Expected advantages in Q1 include increased net interest margin and average active accounts, with net interest income estimated to grow by around 3% year-over-year [4] - The total average active accounts are projected to have risen marginally in Q1 [5] - An increase in Average Interest-Earning Assets is anticipated, with a consensus estimate indicating a 3.4% rise from the previous year [6] - The net interest margin is expected to improve to 14.76%, up from 14.55% a year ago, enhancing profitability [6] Challenges and Concerns - Despite positive factors, Synchrony is expected to face increased information processing and professional fees, along with a slight decline in purchase volumes [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total purchase volumes indicates a 0.1% year-over-year decline due to selective consumer spending and credit actions [8] - The efficiency ratio is projected at 32.46%, indicating a deterioration from the prior year's figure of 25.1% [8] - Net charge-offs are likely to have substantially increased in the quarter [8]