Chipotle Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is experiencing a decline in stock price ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, despite announcing its first expansion into Mexico, which may indicate a broader international strategy [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Analysts anticipate Chipotle will report earnings of 28 cents per share on revenue of $2.93 billion, reflecting year-over-year increases of 3.7% and 8.5% respectively [2]. - The stock has a history of mixed earnings reactions, averaging a 6.6% move in either direction over the past eight quarters, with the options market indicating a potential next-day swing of 11.7% [2]. Stock Performance Trends - Chipotle's stock has been in a downtrend for most of 2025, with a year-to-date decline of 24.9% and a 12-month decline of 20.6% [3]. - Recent attempts to rally have been consistently rejected at the 40-day moving average, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - BofA Global Research has reduced its price target for Chipotle to $64 from $71, which still represents a 40% premium to current stock levels [6]. - The average 12-month price objective for the stock stands at $63, suggesting potential for further downward revisions [6]. Volatility Assessment - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is at 25 out of 100, indicating that it has underperformed relative to the volatility expectations priced into its options [7].