合成橡胶：成本端偏弱 且供增需弱 BR上方承压

Raw Materials and Spot Market - As of April 21, the price of high cis-butadiene rubber in Shandong, based on Daqing BR9000, closed at 11,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton compared to the previous period, contrary to earlier expectations [1] - The trading atmosphere has slightly improved compared to last week, although most prices remain in a backwardation state [1] Production and Operating Rates - In March, China's butadiene production was 460,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.9%; the production of high cis-butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, up 14.8% month-on-month [2] - The operating rates for the butadiene industry were 74.1%, down 0.6%; for high cis-butadiene rubber, the rate was 62.8%, up 3.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 74.2%, down 0.3%, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 67.4%, up 0.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of April 16, butadiene port inventory was 35,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the factory inventory of high cis-butadiene rubber was 27,710 tons, up 560 tons, a 2.1% increase [3] - The inventory held by traders was 4,370 tons, a decrease of 330 tons, down 7% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on April 21, Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart its 50,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit within the week [4] Market Analysis - On April 21, the rubber sector rebounded along with commodities, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2505 closing at 11,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 1.77% [5] - The supply of butadiene remains ample, with two butadiene units scheduled for maintenance in late April, but new capacities from ExxonMobil and Wanhua are expected to supplement the market [5] - Demand for new orders is weak, compounded by high finished product inventories, leading to a decline in semi-steel tire operating rates and low full-steel tire operating rates [5] - Natural rubber production in Yunnan is normal, and the tapping process in Hainan is in line with seasonal expectations, with overall tapping expectations in Thailand remaining strong [5] - The ongoing "tariff war" adds to market uncertainty, which is expected to remain high [5] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation for short-term trading is to short BR2505 on rallies, with a short-term outlook indicating a downward trend [6]