Estée Lauder(US:EL) 智通财经网·2025-04-22 02:02Core Insights - The report from Evercore ISI indicates a 3% year-on-year decline in China's beauty product imports in March, while online retail sales grew by 10%, suggesting a potential market bottoming out [1][2][5] - The sales in Korean duty-free shops are projected to reach $10 billion in 2024, which is 2.5 times that of Hainan, but recent subsidy cuts have led to a 22% drop in sales for January and February, resulting in some store closures in Seoul [1][6][7] - The decline in beauty product imports serves as a reference for retailers' reordering of high-end beauty products, with a notable double-digit decrease in reorders from Hainan duty-free shops [1][2][6] Industry Trends - Online sales and import data indicate that the inventory levels in China's beauty market, including Hainan duty-free shops, are balanced [5][6] - The beauty ecosystem in China is interconnected with the Korean market, where duty-free sales are supported by subsidies aimed at attracting customers [6] - The overall beauty market in mainland China is estimated to be $25.1 billion in 2024, with online sales accounting for 48% and offline sales for 52%, both showing slight declines [6] Company Impact - The turbulence in the Korean market is significant for companies like Estée Lauder, which derives 8% of its sales from Korea and 26% from China, including Hainan [7] - The recent performance of LVMH also reflects the broader market trends, with a reported decline in organic sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 [7]